Complications after the food crisis high food prices yet the essay predicament

 Essence, the international food trade for the United States and a few major grain exporting countries dominated, self-limiting prices will undermine the fundamental interests of the

one after the global financial crisis, food prices rising wave of underway. 2008 famine in poor countries Qiangliang cries sound still ringing in our ears, is now easy to break through that time food prices already high. Food crisis is rapidly enveloped the world. High food prices, is to adapt to or fight, difficulties yet to be started.

FAO Jan. 4 to the latest food price index shows food prices in December 2010 has exceeded 2008 year high of 214.7, refresh the record of 30 years. Almost all food can be a living fly all the way prices jump up: six months, grain prices rose 57%, vegetable oil rose 56%, 77% sucrose also soaring. FAO warned that if food prices continue to rise, food crisis or will be repeated. WFP Executive Director Josette Sheeran said the WFP is facing this year, nearly 30 billion dollars gap. If prices continue to rise, the funding gap will be further expanded.

interval of two years, although rising food prices, but the matter of food prices The current situation is actually bad



2007, at the specter of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the world economy maintained high growth. It was at this year, speculators cashing in full, the industry has gradually collapsed with the subprime mortgage crisis, hot money into commodity markets this last paradise. In 2008, food prices, soaring oil prices race, staged before the end of the international financial crisis, the irrational madness. With the international financial crisis sweeping the world,

blowout from the past six months, rising food prices, it is easy to see with amazing two years ago, similar to that crisis. First, natural disasters, the basic reason for price increases again. 2010, troubled, water, drought and other natural disasters, visit the main grain-producing countries, a comprehensive, strength far exceeds the food crisis in 2008 affected the level of the previous two years. Russian fire and food In this anticipation, wheat, barley, corn and other staple food prices rising panic, and then affect the oilseeds and sugar prices soared.

Second, the hot money reincarnated, speculation continued as the main force. On the one hand, the world economy into a recovery track, pulling the food demand for commodities as the representative of that hot money speculation earnings prospects of these products is guaranteed; the other hand, high unemployment, the United States, Europe, the debt crisis and the road to recovery ups and downs, the majority of investment, speculation areas still weak, and increasingly high risk, so that funds have to continue to remain the international grain market hedging.

Third, negative to the change in food stocks. U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest forecast shows the U.S. 2010/11 wheat ending stocks of corn were reduced to 022 million tons and 0.19 million tons; global corn ending stocks were also lowered to 1.27 million tons, a 15 year low. In 2008, British media reported that world grain stocks sufficient only 57 days, a food crisis in a fuse. Today, the world's consumption of food stocks have fallen more than 19%, nearly 18% of the security cordon, in which the risk of self-evident.

However, the current food prices soaring, there are some more worrying factor. First, the world is awash with liquidity, not what amount of money speculation. The international financial crisis, Western countries to make cheap money to stimulate economic expansion over the U.S. policy of quantitative easing is more excessive fan the flames, the effects of inflation, Bernanke manufacturing commodity market concentration in the effect, the purpose of a large number of hot money in a rash of funds, led by Chung profits into the fish food market, so that grain also will upgrade the bubble, expansion.

Second, the food is more obvious features of the financial technology, have been away from the basic supply and demand and consumption attributes. Currently, the hot money has been gradually using food and other related financial assets, market transparency, more uncertainty.

In addition, grain speculation has begun to attract some high-return industrial capital to join. If the rise in commodity prices is expected to speed the pace of economic recovery, a period of time far more than physical, more funds will be transferred into the food market.

future international food prices go? In fact, as early as in 2008, FAO has a clear conclusion: the next 10 years, the international food prices will remain high. From the current situation, the prices continue upward is not alarmist.

the long term, global food supply situation tight balance is difficult to change, living beyond the risk is also rising. Demand, improving people's lives, the food consumption in emerging markets is still high up on; supply, and by weather conditions and other factors, increase year after year will be difficult to achieve, high-tech industrialization of agriculture, the speed is still low. Comparison of supply and demand, the future will increase the frequency of use of inventory, stock bottomed out it is difficult to avoid a repeat situation.

medium term, the global flood of liquidity levels will be relatively slow recovery, if Zaiyu impede economic recovery, the international grain market would be difficult to smooth the amount of money down to the level before 2008, food prices will continue to maintain high.

the short term, hinder the rise in food prices is weak. States to pay greater attention to global food security, but measures are more focused on the poorest countries to help develop agriculture and other long-term planning, short-term surge in food prices helpless. On the surface, high food prices is a market product, or can benefit farmers, limit the administrative intervention, program behavior, not the Western developed countries. But in essence, the international grain trade for the United States, few dominated the major grain exporting countries, since the limit price would be detrimental to their fundamental interests. This is a long time only through the nose for international organizations to alleviate the food grain deficit countries can not afford the crux of the contradiction. Perhaps some countries happy to see high food prices, but food and other commodity market volatility is indeed any country and people are not willing to see.

Historical experience shows that, after any price spikes will usher in fall, together with countries in the future to save a critical situation, it is better now proceed to solve the problem. G20 summit in Pittsburgh since the previous summit, food security has become an important problem can not be ignored. In the future should also be food and other commodity prices into a framework for discussions G20, through international policy coordination, strengthen the supervision of the international grain market, improve the transparency of the prices, global food availability and other multi-level security. (Wei Liang Author: China Institute of Contemporary International Relations Institute of World Economics)